Auszug aus Stocks for the long Run on J. Siegel
Theoretisch ist es schon so, dass Aktien Inflation über lange Sicht ausgleichen.
Manche Firmen können aber Preise besser weitergeben als andere, und zu denen denen das besser gelingt gehört eher Google &Co, als Firmen mit hohem Energie oder Rofstoffbedarf, wie Chemie - und andere Industrieunternehmen
Die weitere Frage ist, werden mit der Inflation die Zinsen am langen Ende also 10 jährige oder 30 jährige steigen?
( Diesen waren in USA auch nie bei null. )
In der Vergangenheit war es so, dies würde dann wesentlich niedrigere KGVs aller Aktien bedeuten.
Ich denke die 70er Jahre kann man sich schon als Beispiel nehmen - und da gab es keine kriegerischen Auseinandersetzungen vor der Haustür
„
Inflation
..
It can be shown that when inflation impacts input and output
prices equally, the present value of the future cash flows from stocks is
not adversely affected by inflation. Higher future earnings will offset
higher interest rates so that, over time, the price of stocks--as well as the
level of dividends-will rise at a rate equaling that of inflation. The re-
turns from stocks will keep up with rising prices and stocks will act as a
complete inflation hedge.
Supply-Induced Inflation
The description in the previous section holds when inflation is purely
monetary in nature, influencing costs and profits equally. But there are
many circumstances when earnings cannot keep up with inflation. Stocks
declined during the 1970s because the restriction in OPEC oil supplies
dramatically influenced costs. Firms were not able to raise the prices of
their output by as much as the soaring cost of their energy inputs.
In the last chapter I noted that inflation is the result of too much
money chasing too few goods. A reduction in goods supplied as well as
an increase in money issued can cause inflation. A reduction in output
can occur because of low productivity or a sharp rise in input prices. In
these circumstances, it is not surprising that inflation caused by supply problems should negatively affect the stock market. The inflationary 1970s were just such a period.
US. manufacturers, who for years had thrived on low energy
prices, were totally unprepared to deal with surging oil costs. The reces-
sion that followed the first OPEC oil squeeze pummeled the stock mar-
ket. Productivity plummeted, and by the end of 1974 real stock prices,
measured by the Dow-Jones average, had fallen 65 percent from the
January 1966 high- the largest decline since the crash of '29. Pessimism ran so deep that nearly half of all Americans in August 1974 believed the economy was heading towards a depression such as the one the nation had experienced in the 1930s.
„