Depotzugang: FDP

nein, mit FDP ist nicht die Partei der freiheitlichen Deppen gemeint, sondern Fresh Del Monte, die wohl jeder kennt der ab und an mal Früchte verspeist.

Warum also FDP?
Die Aktie ist über meinen Stock-Screener ausgespuckt worden und nach Prüfung der Fundamentaldaten ist die Aktie in mein Depot gewandert.

Hier die wesentlich Kennzahlen im Überblick:

KGV: 5,7
KUV: 0,57
KCV: 4,5
KBV: 1,44
Eigenkapitalrendite: ca. 20%
Div-Rendite: 3,4%

die positiven Punkte zusammengefasst:
- Abbau der Schulden auf nahezu null in den letzten Jahren
- Euro/Dollar derzeit aus meiner Sicht fair bewertet
- positiver freier Cash Flow, der durch Abbau der Schulden noch steigen könnte
- hohe Dividende
- günstige Kennzahlen
- Insider halten mehr als 50% => geringer free float
- Kursverlauf trotz negativen Ratings sehr stabil

die negativen Punkte zusammengefasst:
- Zacks Rating ist derzeit auf Strong Sell (laut deren Statistik ein guter Indiz für Underperformer)
- kein richtiger Antizykliker
- Währungsabhängig

80 Stück wandern zu 19 Euro in mein Depot.

Hier noch einige Charts und Vergleiche mit Konkurrenten CHIQUITA und DELTA & PINE LAND:

Return on Equity Vergleich

KUV-Vergleich

Das Quartalsergebnis ist im Rahmen der Erwartungen geblieben. Auch die "Narren" von Motely Fool finden inzwischen, dass FDP trotz gesunkener Marge unterbewertet ist:

Mixed Fresh Fruit Salad

The Motley Fool Take
Fresh Del Monte Produce

By Philip Durell
February 11, 2004
Yesterday, Fresh Del Monte Produce (NYSE: FDP) (not to be confused with food giant Del Monte Foods (NYSE: DLM), a major international producer of fresh fruit and vegetables, reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of 2003.

Fourth-quarter sales were $578.7 million, an increase of 18.7% over the same quarter a year ago, with recent acquisitions contributing about $60 million. However, net income was $22.8 million, down from $35.2 million last year.

A one-time sale of a subsidiary in the 2002 fourth quarter contributed $4 million so the normalized net income was $31.2 million. Still this quarter's net margin has been considerably squeezed to 3.9% from last year's normalized net margin of 6.4%.

The annual figures look considerably better. Sales improved from $2.1 billion to $2.5 billion, a 19% increase, and net income from $195.2 million to $226.4 million. Allowing for one-time items, the normalized net income was $209.2 million for an increase of 7.2% over 2003. Net margins declined to 8.4% in 2003 from 9.3% in 2002.

In the earnings conference call, Fresh Del Monte cited many reasons for the lower margins, chief among them the acquisition of Standard Fruit and Vegetable Company. This acquisition is part of Fresh Del Monte's diversification strategy to add more non-tropical fruits and vegetables, which carry lower margins. Although not a significant contributor in 2003, Country Fresh Produce was also acquired in mid-December. In addition to diversifying Fresh Del Monte's product line, these two companies brought significant distribution assets to the table.

These acquisitions will help Fresh Del Monte compete with the recently privatized Dole Food Company and Chiquita Brands International (NYSE: CQB). Fresh Del Monte believes that major retailers and fast-food chains are increasingly looking towards having fewer suppliers for their fresh whole fruits and fresh cut fruits. I noted that Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX) is increasing the number of locations serving Fresh Del Monte fresh cut fruit, and that Wendy's (NYSE: WEN) has the fresh cut fruit on trial. The increase in higher-margin fresh cut fruits is one of the keys to Fresh Del Monte's future earnings growth.

In the conference call, I found it refreshing (now, if you really want refreshing try Fresh Del Monte's "Del Monte Gold Extra Sweet" pineapple) that the CEO Mohammad Abu-Ghazaleh refrained from offering 2004 earnings guidance, preferring to focus on business strategy.

He may not have offered guidance for 2004, but analysts have estimated earnings of $3.65 per share, which is essentially no growth for 2004. Interestingly, the lowest five-year analyst's estimate is for 9% earnings growth, so accelerated growth is expected from 2005 onwards.

Based on last night's closing share price of $26.02, Fresh Del Monte appears undervalued with a price to earnings ratio (P/E) of just 7.1. Sure, a business that is largely dependent on weather can be considered cyclical (check Dave Marino-Nachison's 2001 article on Fresh Del Monte's increasing margins), and consequently, the P/E will never match that of a Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), but it is not unreasonable to expect a P/E of 10 once any earnings growth re-appears.

Using a discounted cash flow analysis, the company appears just as undervalued. With a conservative earnings growth rate of just 3%, approximately equal to the long-term rate of inflation in the U.S., I would place the current intrinsic value at between $31 and $38. Even at the lower figure, Fresh Del Monte is undervalued and any return to growth would significantly increase my valuation.

A mixed fresh fruit salad? Certainly an investor rarely likes to see reducing profit margins, but at this low valuation and a reasonable prospect of a return to even a modest earnings growth in 2005, I see this as one of the most undervalued opportunities out there today.

Ein kleines Update zu FDP:

Del Monte Foods Europe wurde für $340 Mio. übernommen.
Der Gewinn pro Aktie wird dieses Jahr vorrausichtlich von 2,5 auf 2,0 fallen. Verursacht ist dies wohl hauptsächlich durch Produktionsausfälle/Schäden wegen der Hurricans. Das KGV steigt somit von 6 auf 9, was immer noch recht günstig ist. Der Kurs reagiert auf diese Gewinnwarnung jedenfalls erstaunlich stabil.
Die Dividende von 3% ist jedenfalls nicht gefährdet. Umsatz und Gewinn sollten dann im nächsten Jahr wieder auf das alte Niveau ansteigen.