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Eventuell lohnt es sich hier zu investieren um vom Euro wegzudiversifizieren.
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The Swedish Krona, An Odd Victim - by Pierre Gave
Published on May 22nd, 2012
It is puzzling that the Swedish krona should be so directly in the firing line as investors flee the chaos in southern Europe. The SEK has fallen for 15 of the last 16 days against the US$ (the longest losing streak since 1971) and is trading at a two-year low. It also has the dubious distinction of being the worst major OECD currency against the euro so far this month, losing nearly 3%.
One can hardly attribute the fallout to knock-on economic effects, as a deeper downturn in southern Europe is unlikely to have a significant impact. Swedish exports to Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece only amount to 4.5% of total exports; if one includes France the total is 9.9% of exports , down from 15% in the late 1990s. Swedens export industry is far more dependent on northern EuropeScandinavia plus Germany and the Netherlands represent 38% of total exports. In other words Swedish industry is exposed to the right part of Europe. And while Swedish GDP growth is set to slow from the torrid pace of the past two years (5.8% YoY in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011), this should come as no surprise. Private sector analysts, the Riksbank and the Ministry of Finance have all been pretty clear in telegraphing this years GDP growth rate (current official projections are around 1-1.5% YoY for 2012). Moreover, there has been very little change in the Swedish growth outlook in the past couple of weeks to trigger such a violent correction in the SEK.
So could the kronas weakness be explained by vulnerability in the Swedish financial system? The Swedish banking sector is quite large relative to GDP, so naturally the underlying economy would be subject to significant volatility if a serious accident was incurred. But most of Swedish banks foreign exposure has been geared to the Baltic region and these losses have already been accounted for.
Swedish exposure to southern European debt is very small compared to the other major European banking sectors and all Swedish banks passed last years European Union bank stress tests with a "good margin.
After a recent inspection tour, the IMF duly noted that Swedish growth was likely to slow, but saw no serious systemic risks and noted that Swedens good economic performance is the result of robust policy frameworks and sustained reform initiatives. Indeed, it is precisely these supply side reforms that have allowed Sweden to weather the crisis with a very modest rise in unemployment to 7.3% from 6% pre-Lehman. More impressively, Sweden is the only OECD country that has managed to lower its government debt to GDP ratio during this whole ordeal.
If anything, Swedens fundamentals make the country more of a safe haven than a Greek contagion victim. The bond markets agree with this assessment as yields on the Swedish 10-year government bonds have fallen to near record lows of 1.47%, at par with the mighty German bund. Meanwhile, the 5-year CDS on Sweden is currently quoted at 64bps, the third lowest in Europe (only Switzerland and Norway are lower). This illustrates an interesting dichotomy: how can a countrys bond market be perceived as a safe haven, while its currency is not?
The answer, we believe, lies in Swedish equities. Swedens stock market has come to be treated as a kind of leveraged risk-on play, especially in the last couple of years (see chart overleaf). Meanwhile, foreign ownership of Swedish stocks has risen from around 25% in the mid-1990s to an all-time high of 40%. This implies that recent selling pressure in the krona has resulted from repatriation of fickle foreign capital out of the Swedish stock market, and not because of worsening economic fundamentals.
As long as the current malaise in Europe remains, we should probably not expect the SEK to recovery markedly, especially against the US$. However, we believe the current weakness should be bought. And as far as Swedish assets go, the equity market probably offers more value than the bond markets at this stage. Indeed, if we do get a turnaround in market sentiment, buying into the Swedish stock market will in all likelihood give investors a lucrative double-play of a rallying equity prices and a recovering currency. This is especially true since the SEK remains significantly undervalued on a purchasing parity basis (almost a 30% undervaluation against the Euro and 12% against the US$).
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