Standard Pacific Corp

Soweit ich das in der letzten Zeit beobachtet habe, sind die Hauspreise vor allem in bestimmten Regionen stark rückläufig: SF Bay Area, SD, Florida, die südliche Ostküste und Boston. Ob das jetzt nur der Anfang ist, oder sich noch weiter ausbreitet, bleibt abzusehen.

Mish Shedlock ist einer der großen Doom-Propheten des Housing Markets in den USA und hat eine ganze Reihe von lokalen Beobachtungen und Artikeln in seinem Blog, aber man muss sich ein wenig durchwühlen (z.B. Posting von 11 Oktober): http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

Einige der Homebuilders heben ebenso regionale Schwerpunkte. Ich habe da keinen Überblick, aber es wäre eventuell sinnvoll sowohl über den Häusermarkt wie auch bei den regionalen Schwerpunkten der Builders zu recherchieren und das in Beziehung zu setzen.

Gestern gab es bei den Indizes einen Sprung nach oben. Ursache dürfte der unveränderte gebliebene Leitzins in den USA sein. http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/0,1518,444759,00.html

Eigentlich hat die Häuserbranche die Wahl zwischen Pest und Cholera: Entweder steigen die Zinsen, oder sie bleiben gleich oder werden abgesenkt, aber der Grund dafür dürfte dann die sich verlangsamende Konjunktur in den USA sein. Auch nicht unbedingt gut für den Häusermarkt.

Die Frage, die man sich beantworten muss, ist die, ob diese Probleme beriets eingepreist sind, oder ob da noch etwas kommt.

...wir gehen in den Winterschlaf und schauen uns die Sache im Frühling wieder an

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/2…ex.htm?source=yahoo_quote

Prices post nearly a 10% decline from a year earlier and more than 15% from peak; lower prices lift September sales 5.3%.
By Chris Isidore, CNNMoney.com senior writer
October 26 2006: 4:47 PM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- New home prices took their biggest hit in more than 35 years in September, the government said Thursday, the latest sign that builders are struggling to unload a glut of unsold homes as the nation's real estate market cools.

The lower prices may have worked, as the annual pace of new home sales climbed 5.3 percent to 1.08 million last month, according to the Census Bureau report. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast a reading of 1.05 million, which would have been flat with the initial August reading.

But the median price of a new home tumbled 9.7 percent from a year earlier to $217,100. It was the sharpest drop since December 1970, when prices posted an 11.2 percent decline, and was the fourth largest year-over-year decline on record.
Top 10 markets: Where to buy now

The September price slump also marked a 9.3 percent decline from August and a 15.5 percent drop from the record high price of $257,700 posted in April of this year.

In addition, the government's measure of prices doesn't capture all the incentives such as free closing costs that many builders have been offering to boost sales.

The collapse in pricing is likely due to the oversupply of homes on the market, due greatly to the building boom of last year.

The number of completed new homes available for sale at the end of the period rose to a record 157,000. That is up 50,000 homes, or 47 percent, from the supply of completed homes on the market a year earlier.

Builders cut back on the supply of homes not yet started that were listed for sale. And homes under construction available for sale also declined from August, although that reading is still up from a year earlier. But even with those signs of the builders trying to put the brakes on supply, the overall inventory of new homes on the market is up about 14 percent from year-ago levels.
The bubble-proof economy

The median price reflects the point at which half the homes cost more and half cost less. The average price, which typically is higher than the median due to high-priced homes, also fell but only 2.1 percent below year earlier prices to $293,200. But it marked only the third month this year that the average was below the $300,000 benchmark.

A report Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors showed the sharpest year-over-year drop on record for the median price of existing homes. New home sales are a much smaller piece of the real estate market than existing homes, but new homes are watched as more of a leading indicator of the market.

Existing home sales are booked when a sale closes - typically a few months after a contract is signed - while new home sales are based on contract signings and are considered more forward-looking.

New home sales are also seen as important to the supply of homes on the market. Many of the new homes purchased during the boom are believed to have been purchased by investors who are now looking to sell and get out of the softer real estate market.

And new home sales also drive construction employment, a key part of the nation's jobs base, as well as sales of appliances, carpeting and other home furnishings.

Despite all the recent weakness in housing, there are some signs that the housing slump may be at or near its bottom. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday that while the housing sector's woes were "not over," he believes the outlook for housing was reasonably good.

"Most of the negatives in housing are probably behind us," Greenspan said at a conference sponsored by the Commercial Finance Association. "The fourth quarter should be reasonably good, certainly better than the third quarter."

A Census Bureau report earlier this month showed home builders having an unexpected increase in housing starts, and a survey of members by the National Association of Home Builders showed a small improvement in confidence, the first increase in that measure in a year, although those with a negative view of the new home market still outnumbered those with a positive view by a four-to-one margin.

The slowdown in new home building has hurt profits and sales for the nation's home builders, including Pulte Homes (up $0.46 to $32.66, Charts), Centex (up $0.66 to $54.27, Charts) D.R. Horton (up $0.34 to $24.31, Charts), Lennar (up $0.80 to $48.27, Charts), K.B. Home (up $0.69 to $46.30, Charts) and Toll Brothers (up $0.06 to $30.50, Charts).

Wednesday afternoon Pulte, the nation's No. 1 home builder by market value, became the latest to post a sharp drop in earnings. It also cut its sales forecast for the current period far below forecast. Centex also cut its forecasts earlier in the week.

sonst immer im Goldfred eingestellt, heute passt er hier:
Paulvaneeden
It is now becoming very hard to deny that US real estate prices got ahead of themselves, or that the slowdown in the real estate market is causing drag for the US economy. It should therefore be just be a matter of time before base metal prices and the gold price decouple.

Third quarter economic growth in the United States was the lowest in three years and it was a direct result of the downturn in the real estate market. Annualized GDP growth was only 1.6% from July to September, compared to 2.6% in the second quarter and 5.6% in the first quarter, and while I was editing this letter I saw an article on Bloomberg that suggested GDP growth for last quarter may have been overstated by as much as 0.7%, meaning the actual growth was an anemic 0.9%. Most sectors of the economy posted positive growth, except residential fixed investment, which includes spending on housing, and which fell by 17.4%. This was the sharpest decline in residential investment since 1991 and reduced overall GDP by 1.12%.

A headline in the Wall Street Journal on Thursday read: "New-Home Sales Jumped 5.3% Last Month as Prices Plunged." One could assume from such a headline that the real estate market might be turning around. However, that increase in new home sales is based on seasonally adjusted figures. Based on unadjusted numbers, there was a 2.3% decline in new home sales from August to September.

Because of changing weather and consequent changing buying patterns, it is not always useful to compare month-to-month data, which is why the data is adjusted for seasonality. But given the state of the market I would not put too much emphasis on a seasonally adjusted figure either, since the market is currently quite volatile. So let's look at some other data.

Sales of previously owned homes were down 1.9% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, which, as I mentioned can be misleading. On a year-to-year basis (a better gauge under the current circumstances) September existing home sales were down 14.2% in September.

Home prices are also falling: The average price of a new home decreased by 6.6% from August to September and the median home price fell 9.7% year-over-year. The latter is the largest decline in home prices since 1970.

As I have mentioned before, I think the decline in the real estate market is going to have a profound impact on US economic growth, but we have not seen it yet. The decline thus far is only the beginning. Thus far the impact on GDP has been mainly a direct result of reduced spending on housing; wait for the ripple effect to flow through -- that's what is really going to hurt.

It has started, but has not matured. In the meantime the media continues to try and put a positive spin on things. "Durable Goods Demand Surges", we are lead to believe. But on further analysis this, too, seems overly optimistic. Overall durable goods orders increased by 7.8% last month but, when you look at the data, the increase seems to have come predominantly from a 183% increase in non-defense aircraft and parts. Aircraft orders are notoriously volatile because the items are so expensive. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose only 0.1% in September (from August) and shipments declined by 2.2%. The Institute of Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity declined 2.9% from August to September.

Consumer spending accounts for 70% of US GDP and direct residential investment accounts for another 5% to 6%. Consumers, in total, therefore account for at least 75% of US economic activity, and it is the momentum of consumer spending that is still keeping the economy growing. With real estate prices and sales declining, I would not want to bet that consumer spending is going to keep on growing.

McGraw-Hill Construction is forecasting the first decline in overall construction since 1991 due to a 5% anticipated decline in construction of single-family homes. But the company also forecasts a 3% decline in construction of shopping centers since these are closely tied to residential construction.

David Seiders, the chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders expects prices for single-family homes to continue to decline next year due to over-building, prices that have outpaced incomes, and rising inventories of unsold homes. The Association expects that the imbalance between supply and demand has, and will continue to have, a negative impact on homebuilders. During the second quarter, the annual rate of single-family home starts fell 41.2% and, according to Mr. Seiders, permits are in "free fall".

The construction industry (not just residential) accounts for almost 10% of US economic activity and its contraction will also have an impact since it is a major buyer of products and generator of employment.

Faced with the above, the Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged. My guess is that the Fed has no idea what to do, so they're doing exactly what people do when they don't know what to do: nothing.

In the meantime the European Central Bank hinted that it might continue to raise interest rates next year since Europe's economic growth has become more broadly based and demand for credit is fueling an increase in Europe's money supply.

The combination of the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates unchanged and the European Central bank hinting at higher rates caused some dollar weakness this week, which, in turn, caused a bit of a rally in the gold price. But, fundamentally, nothing has changed this week. We knew the US economy is slowing down and the market widely expected the Fed leave interest rates alone.

I don't expect the gold price to break out to the upside until the dollar gets hit and in the meantime the decline in the US economy is bad news for base metals. New orders for primary metals in the US declined by 1.0% from August to September (a 12% annualized decline) and shipments of primary metals declined by 2.0% (24% annualized). Because the gold price rallied along with base metals from July last year to May this year, a sharp decline in base metals prices remains the biggest short-term risk to the gold price. But until we get some idea whether base metals are going to fall first, or whether the dollar is going to fall first, it will be difficult to take a hard stance on where the gold price is going. Either one could happen soon, or both stay range-bound for quite some time. It is why markets test our patience and convictions.

I will be speaking in Zurich on November 6th and Stockholm on November 8th, so there may not be a commentary for the next two weeks. For more information on those conferences please visit my website at http://www.paulvaneeden.com/conferences.php.

Paul van Eeden

Newsletter:
If you enjoy reading these commentaries I suggest you go to my website at http://www.paulvaneeden.com/commentary.php and register to get them by email. Rest assured that I do not sell or rent any of my subscribers' email addresses.

Nicht wenn das Geld aus gewohnheitsmäßig erhöhten Hypotheken kommt (Terminus technicus: taking out some equity).

Toll Brothers und Beazer Homes haben wenig Erfreuliches gemeldet:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061107/homebuilders_slump.html?.v=4

Ich beobachte den S&P Housing Index regelmäßig, weil ich schon seit Mai Short Zertifikate der ABN im Deopt liegen habe. (Neben meiner negativen Meinung zur US-Housing dient das auch der allgmeinen Absicherung meines Depots vor plötzlichen Crashes).

Nachdem seit der Index Ende Juli leichte Aufwärtstendenzen hatte, sackt er seit zwei Wochen wieder gut durch: Von 650 auf 590 Punkte (Immerhin 10%):

Besser hier zu erkennen: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=S15HOME:IND

Für die Hardcore-Interessierten hier noch eine Studie mit dem Thema: "Near a Bottom in Housing?"

http://web-xp2a-pws.ntrs.com/c…611/document/ec110306.pdf

Das Thema ist momentan natürlich pro-zyklisch, und passt vielleicht gar nicht so sehr ins A-Z Forum?! Früher oder später wäre natürlich der A-Z Einstieg fällig...

Aus dem fool.com geklaut:

Most builders are engaged in joint ventures, which tend to be described vaguely and uselessly in their financial statements. Technical Olympic (TOUSA) has been describing one of theirs more thoroughly lately because it has blown up on them.

In August of 2005, around the time of the final peak in the housing bubble, TOUSA bought a 50% interest in Florida homebuilder Transeastern Homes by setting up a joint venture with the former owners of that company. TOUSA kept all the liabilities of the venture off their balance sheet so investors couldn't gage the full extent of the risks. The investment in the venture was simply treated as an asset valued at around $135 million.

As the Florida housing market stalled, the joint venture ran into big liquidity problems and the managers of the joint venture informed creditors that they weren't going to be able to make payments under the current structure. In September '06, TOUSA recalculated the value of their investment in the JV and decided it was worthless, writing off about 12% of the company's shareholder equity with a click of a mouse, but that's not the end of this hidden liability.

Deutsche Bank filed suit against TOUSA expecting them to make good on the joint venture's debt. The latest press release says that TOUSA is offering to effectively buy out the joint venture. It appears that what used to be shown on the balance sheet as an asset valued as over $100 million will soon be added to both the assets and liability sides of the sheets as a big net liability.

Because it is in Florida and because this JV represented such a large portion of TOA's sales the Transeastern JV story will probably end up being the worst JV stories of the housing bust. However, with almost all of the builders involved in JVs and the financial strains against building ventures getting much worse in 2007 (due to backlog shrinkage coupled with inventory and debt growth) we'll probably see many more balance sheet surprises hitting the publicly traded builders.

http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/070123/112317.html
http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/…406010912/g04306e10vq.htm

Ich tue mich zusehends schwer den Sektor zu verstehen. Gestern Earnings von 2 Homebuildern:

Zitat

Pulte (PHM)

Pulte reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $8.41 million, or 3 cents a share. During the same period a year ago, the company posted net earnings of $574.5 million, or $2.19 a share. The loss from continuing operations was $8.3 million, or 3 cents a share.
...
Net new home orders for the quarter totaled 6,446 homes, valued at $2.1 billion. The company's backlog as of Dec. 31 was valued at $3.6 billion, or 10,255 homes, compared with $6.3 billion, or 17,817 homes, last year.
...
"Our earnings visibility going forward remains limited due to rapidly changing market conditions and uncertainty regarding possible future land-related charges," Dugas said in a statement. "Given this fluid environment, we are not in a position at this time to provide full-year guidance for 2007

Alles anzeigen

Zitat

M/I Homes (MHO)

Thursday said it swung to a loss in the fourth quarter of $11 million, or 78 cents a share, compared with net income of $41.3 million, or $2.84 a share a year earlier. The home builder said its quarterly results included pre-tax land-related impairment charges of $69.8 million, and $3 million worth of land and lot option deposit and pre-acquisition write-offs, which reduced quarterly earnings by $3.25 a share. The company said new contracts in the fourth quarter plunged 61% from the year-ago period to 353 homes. The stock closed Wednesday up 95 cents to $36.08

Ich habe selten Firmen mit einem so starken Abwärtsmoment in ihren Zahlen gesehen. Die Firmen schreiben Verluste und verlieren bald 1/3 bis 1/2 ihres Umsatzes, der Markt hat den Sektor gestern aber erst einmal 3% nach oben geschickt.

Der Phili Homebuilder Index nähert sich schon wieder dem ATH:

Der Markt hat immer Recht?

Bei den Zahlen ja auch kein Wunder:

- Q4 Loss per share of $1.53 vs. earnings per share of $2.22 last year

- 3,083* new home deliveries, down 13% from 3,558* last year

- Homebuilding gross margin of 2.5% (19.2%** excluding the - $203.3 million inventory impairment charge) vs. 27.7% last year

- 1,296* net new home orders, down 40% year-over-year, and quarter-end backlog of 2,639* homes, valued at $923 million
2006 Earnings per share of $1.85 vs. $6.30 last year

Zitat

Sorgen um Kredite belasten US-Börsen

...Toll-Brothers-Aktien gaben dagegen mehr als drei Prozent auf 33,39 Dollar nach. Der Baukonzern musste sich im ersten Geschäftsquartal mit einem Drittel weniger Aufträge begnügen und einen Umsatzrückgang von fast 20 Prozent hinnehmen. "Ich glaube, das letzte Wort über die Schwäche des Immobilienmarktes ist noch nicht gesprochen", sagte ein Börsianer. Es gebe einige Investoren, die noch immer fürchteten, das gesamte Wirtschaftswachstum könne durch den Immobilienmarkt gebremst werden.

Schwer getroffen wurde zudem der Finanzsektor, wo auch die Riesen JPMorgan und Citigroup abgestraft wurden. JPMorgan notierten 0,55 Prozent, Citigroup 0,93 Prozent im Minus. Europas größte Bank HSBC hatte davor gewarnt, dass faule Kredite in ihrem US-Geschäft die Bilanz schmälern könnten. Die in New York notierten HSBC-Aktien verloren 2,5 Prozent auf knapp 90 Dollar.

Daraufhin gaben auch die Titel des größten US-Kreditgebers, der New Century Financial Corp, drastisch nach. Die Papiere fielen um mehr als 36 Prozent auf 19,24 Dollar - der größte prozentuale Rückgang an der New Yorker Börse.

"Die beiden Faktoren, die auf dem Aktienmarkt lasten, sind Toll Brothers und HSBC", sagte Jim Paulsen von Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. Diese Kombination vermittle den Eindruck, dass die gegenwärtigen Bedingungen schlecht seien und sogar noch schlechter werden könnten.
http://www.wiwo.de/pswiwo/fn/w…246320/fm/0/SH/0/depot/0/

Alles anzeigen

http://housingbubblebust.com/Builder/SPF.html