Blog - MadHedgeFundTrader

Hab noch ein großes Juwel für euch, bin echt begeistert davon.

Handelt sich um ein Blog von "MadHedgeFundTrader" mit sehr interessanten und sogar lustigen Beiträgen zu Märkten, Ländern, Aktien, Rohstoffen, Politik, einfach alles.
Nach eigenen Angaben liest sich seine Laufbahn sehr beeindruckend, was meiner Meinung nach auch durch seine Artikel gut rauskommt. Leider sehr Amerika-lastig, aber wirklich zu empfehlen:

http://blog.madhedgefundtrader.com/

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Vielleicht werden hier ja mal ein paar Beiträge von ihm zum Meinungsaustausch aufgegriffen..

"MadHedge" wurde interviewt, liest sich ganz nett:
http://www.philstockworld.com/…-a-mad-hedge-fund-trader/

Last night the Reserve Bank of Australia raised overnight cash ratesfrom 3.75% to 4%, spurred on by a healthy, resource fueled economy anda booming jobs market. The move put a spotlight on the Aussie/Eurocross, which I recommended traders buy a month ago at $AUS 62.5 (click here forthe call). With the cross now tickling 67, traders are sitting pretty,with the chart going, as Dennis Gartman likes to say from the lowerleft hand corner to the upper right. The trade quite simply gets youlong a country where everything is going right, and short a regionwhere things are deteriorating by the day. The yield spread between thetwo currencies is now wide enough to drive a truck through, call that alorry, and that gap looks to broaden further. Call this Cross Trading101 for Dummies, but sometimes the easiest trades work the best,because so many investors can understand them.

If you wonder why I recommend a shower after investing in Russia, Bill Browder will give you the reasons at length on his YouTube video (click here for the link ). Bill is the founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, one of the firms that pioneered equity investment in the former Soviet Union in the nineties. After a decade of pursing a campaign of activist investing that brought major changes in corporate governance in big companies like Gazprom and Sberbank, a mafia connected government struck back with a vengeance. It deported Browder in 2005, arrested his lawyer, and pressured him to provide false testimony again his boss, which he refused. A year later, the man died in prison from natural causes. The Russian government then seized Browders operating companies, but fortunately for investors, not before he was able to sell off $4.5 billion in holdings and spirit the funds out of the country. Browder, who is of Russian descent, and whose grandfather was chairman of the America Communist Party, says his case is but the tip of the iceberg. Major multinationals like Shell, BP, and Ikea have also been the victims of corruption and faced arbitrary seizure of assets by the well connected. This lawlessness is the reason why Russian companies perennially trade at single digit multiples. They are cheap on paper, but carry hidden, unquantifiable risks. Browder has since refocused his interests, and is now managing $1.2 billion in other safer emerging markets, like Indonesia (IDX), Thailand (THD), and India (PIN). No doubt that investing in Russia is a double edged sword. It offers enormous oil reserves and natural resources, with GDP flipping from a -7.9% rate in 2009 to an expected 3.2% this year. Russias stock market (RSX) brought in a blazing 125% return in 2009. But you run the risk of a knock on the door in the middle of the night.

Immer wieder amüsant und lehrreich zugleich:

Zitat

1) Get Ready to Load the Boat With Tech Stocks. There is one sector that hedge funds have an absolute laser focus on in the melt down and that is technology stocks. This is where they will be pouncing at the first sign of an upturn, like a famished tiger. Some of the highest quality names have had the biggest falls, and they are now flaunting dividend yields greater than the 3% found on 10 year Treasury bonds. Look at Intel (INTC), which at $20 is selling at a paltry 11 times earnings and a 3% dividend yield, and generates the bulk of its sales in the highest growth sectors of the global economy. After the dotcom bust of 2000, these bad boys spent nearly a decade in the penalty box, shunned by the investing world as the poster boys for wild excess. Think Robert Downey, Jr. on steroids. During this time, cash balances doubled, free cash flows soared, outstanding shares shrank, and multiples fell to a tenth of their bubblicious peaks. I started recommending this group at the absolute bottom of the market last March (click here for the call), and it was no surprise to me when they outperformed almost every sector on the upside. With 60%-80% of their earnings coming from abroad, primarily Asia, I saw them really as foreign stocks wearing cowboy hats, pearl snap buttoned shirts, and Ray Ban aviator sunglasses. They did not need banks, as they are almost entirely self financed, immunizing them from the credit crunch. They avoided many of the management errors that torpedoed so many other US firms, like derivatives books, leveraged real estate exposure, and LBO debt. While their American customers were getting poorer, hundreds of millions more overseas were getting richer.

The industry represents the last, best hope that America has for competing globally, as it is our only means of staying on top of the international value added chain. It seems that in addition to bulk commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, coal, timber, aircraft, weapons, and movies, tech companies are among the few that make things foreigners want to buy. The lessons of the bubble made them ultra conservative in their capital spending, which will lead to product shortages and much higher prices in any recovery. Memory, for example, has seen no capex at all for three years. They are surfing the wave of innovation, and will cash in big time from the mobile computing revolution, cloud computing, and the virtualization of data centers. During the last tech bubble, the industry did not have the global market that it does today. Now, demand from the rising emerging market middle class is kicking in, as it is for commodities. The 13 month tech rally we saw from the 2009 lows could just be the down payment of a decade long bull market in these stocks, which will end with another bubble. When John Chambers, a first class manager, discussed Ciscos (CSCO) outlook after announcing blowout Q4 earnings, he was so effusive he sounded like he was on ecstasy. Take a look at IBM (IBM), Juniper Networks (JNPR), JDS Uniphase (JDSU), Sandisk (SNDK), Micron Technology (MU), and lithography toolmaker (ASML). Long dated call spreads in any of these make sense on a decent dip. You can also look at the Technology Select Sector SPDR (XLK), the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ), or the leveraged ProShares Ultra Technology (ROM).