Standard Pacific Corp

Der Hausbauer schließt sein südliches Büro in Kalifornien. Schöner chart dazu mit antizyklisch interessantem (?) Kursverfall von 90% innerhalb von 2 Jahren vom Hoch auf der vorigen Seite.

Asked how soon he expected the housing market to improve, Krah (Präsident der Nord-Abtg) said, "I don't know. This is clearly a cyclical correction, and we are not shocked. But we never know the magnitude of a correction or the duration. It will get better when people start buying again, as obvious as that sounds."

During the first half of the year, the company reported a net loss of $206.7 million, according to financial statements. That included a pretax loss on its homebuilding operations of more than $337.6 million.

http://www.portfolio.com/news-…cuts-staff-merges-offices

"Ich bevorzuge jetzt Finanzaktien und Bauwerte"

sagt Bill Miller vom Legg Mason Value Trust

(...schlug er in einer einzigartigen Serie 15 Jahre lang den Aktienindex S&P 500...)

Ob das jetzt die Seabridges, Deutzes, MFCs etc der Zukunft sind?

Einige Daten aus den USA:

" New construction of homes in the United States fell 10.2% in September (seasonally adjusted 1.19 million units)

" The drop in housing starts was the 4th consecutive monthly decline.

" We are now ar the lowest level for new home construction since March 1993.

" Starts of single-family homes fell 1.7% to 963,000 (annualized);

" Construction of large apartment units plummeted 34.4% to 228,000.

" Building permits fell 7.3% to a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.23 million -- the lowest level since July 1993.

Quelle: http://bigpicture.typepad.com/…7/10/property-worsen.html

und ein chart:

Jetzt SCHON in Hausbauer zu gehen scheint mehr als mutig ...

Für mich ist das momentan nur eine Art Indikator. Man müßte auch erst mal genau schauen, ob die nicht Pleite gehen; außerdem gibt es in der Branche vielleicht noch Günstigere.

Der starke Einbruch beim Neubau in den USA ist auch der Grund, warum kanadische Holzkonzerne zZt keine Chance haben.

Hier ist noch ein Link zu einer Seite für die Hausbauerindustrie

http://www.builderonline.com/i…-section.asp?sectionID=26

Am Rande: darauf die heutige Meldung, haben die Jungs aus Darmstadt tatsächlich den Preis geholt: http://www.solardecathlon.org/

What would Warren do?

Noch zwei Hausbauer.

So langsam müßte ich mich aufraffen, und anstatt hier rumzusurfen und -zuklicken mich mal hinsetzen und eine ordentliche Liste machen, wer von den LEN, CTX, PHM, TOL, NVR, SPF und so weiter denn am besten dasteht, aber heute eher nicht mehr ...

Shares of homebuilders actually soar the most just after new home prices start to fall.

http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2007/oct/2007_oct_23.asp

Oder doch lieber Shortkandidat?

http://www.thestreet.com/s/bew…LEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Gurus in and out of SPF: http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=16428

Mr Schar, Chef von einem der größten Hausbauer der USA, NVR Inc, hat Anfang November eigene Aktien gekauft, und zwar zu 441 im Schnitt für 52 Mio USD. Der Mann hat Vertrauen in die Zukunft!

http://online.wsj.com/article/…7.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Legg Mason (s.o.) hatte sich vor zwei Monaten in SPF engagiert und mit ca 6,6 Mio Stücken ca 10% der Aktien erworben. Jetzt hat er die meisten davon wieder abgestoßen und die Spekulation mit einem Verlust von ca 35 Mio USD beendet. Auch die Anleihen von SPF stehen stark unter Druck.

http://www.thestreet.com/s/fea…0390610.html?puc=googlefi

SPF fiel gestern um 14% auf 3,15.

Standard Pacific Said It Has No Plans To File Bankruptcy

Wenn der Chef das sagt, bekäme er wohl echte Schwierigkeiten, sollte er in der nächsten Zeit doch um Gläubigerschutz ersuchen. Eine Woche macht noch keinen Sommer, könnte aber ein Boden werden. Es dürfte auch Cracks wie bei Legg Mason mitunter so gehen, daß sie entnervt am Tiefpunkt schmeißen. Bei denen hängen ja auch noch die Geldgeber am Telefon und fragen nach Erfolgen bzw wollen ihre Einlagen zurück.

Aus einer anderen Quelle: Shares of the home builder are down 90 percent for the year, third-quarter earnings posted a $199.7 million dollar loss, and the company's debt load is nearly $2 billion.

http://www.builderonline.com/i…ionID=26&articleID=617019

Eigentlich ein Fall für die Sachsenklinik (und ein Inflationsprofiteur). Soll man sich die Bilanz wirklich anschauen?

Eine Meinung von Zacks zu den

New Home Sales

There has been some improvement on the inventory front, with SAAR inventories down 2.3% for the month and down 6.7% year over year.

However, even within that number there is some cause for concern: inventories of completed houses are actually up 13.7% year over year.

It is the inventories of houses under construction that are down most sharply, down 17.3% year over year and the inventory of not-started houses (basically improved lots) is down 9.5% year over year.

Still, based on the as-yet-unrevised October selling rate, the months of supply dipped to 8.5 months from 9.0 months in September, but still up from 7.1 months a year ago.

I would expect the October numbers will be revised down next month; virtually all of the revisions over the last 18 months have been downward.

By price, there was a fair amount of strength in the starter homemarket (less than $200,000) where on a non-seasonally adjusted basis 26,000 homes were sold in October vs. 19,000 in September and 25,000 a year ago.

The McMansion category (greater than $500,000) also did OK, with sales up to 7,000 from 5,000 last month but down from 9,000 a year ago (the numbers are only released as 7, 5 and 9, so there is a pretty wide range of potential percentage changes in those numbers).

The move-up market is not faring as well with sales of just 24,000 in October, down from 31,000 in September and 40,000 a year ago.

In short -- and short is a good place to be -- the homebuilders like Lennar (NYSE: LEN) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL) are not out ofthe woods. The time to buy the survivors is after the second or third of those stocks writes the eleventh chapter in their corporate histories.

http://www.reuters.com/article…47+30-Nov-2007+BW20071130

Ein schnelles googlen zu Große Hausbauer unter ch 11 ergibt: TOU, Technical Olympic, gerade von der NYSE wegen Pennystock geflogen, notiert bei 0,08 USD OTC.

Am 14.11. wurden folgende Aussichten von der El Paso Times geäussert (http://www.elpasotimes.com/ci_7460719

Earlier this month, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded three of the four largest homebuilders by market valueFort Worth, Texas-based D.R. Horton Inc., Pulte and Lennarto noninvestment grade, or "junk" status.

The ratings picture is even worse for struggling WCI Communities Inc., Standard Pacific Corp. and Tousa Inc., which last month retained advisers from Lazard Freres & Co. "to conduct a comprehensive review" of its finances.

In another ominous sign, many investors are placing bets that homebuilders' stock prices will continue to fall.

Traders are especially negative about Beazer Homes USA Inc., which faces federal investigations of its business practices and is planning to restate financial reports after an internal probe found employees in its mortgage unit violated federal lending rules.

As the housing industry shakeout continues, smaller companies with less access to capital and those that took on too much debt could be the first to go down.

On Friday, Levitt and Sons, a subsidiary of Florida-based Levitt Corp. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, citing "unprecedented conditions," particularly in Florida and the Southeast, where the company operated.

Neumann Homes Inc., a large privately held homebuilder in the Midwest and Colorado, did the same last month. New Jersey's Kara Homes did so in 2006 and, after finding new investors, reorganized this fall under a new name, Maplewood Homebuilders.

Industry veterans say the bigger players are better positioned to ride out this downturn than the one 15 years ago because they are not as concentrated in any particular region. So as the California, Florida and Nevada markets sink, builders with national scope such as D.R. Horton and Pulte can turn to healthier areas like Seattle, Portland, Ore., North Carolina and South Carolina.

And builders, if they are convinced that the market will rebound soon, can always hold off on putting completed projects up for sale.

A executive with Miami-based Lennar was quoted this week in The Wall Street Journal saying the company plans to finish more than 200 homes in Irvine Calif, but will hold off on selling them until the market improves. A company official declined further comment.

Also alles so richtig schön zappenduster.

Wahre AZettler warten allerdings nicht, bis irgendwelche Analisten zum Einstieg blasen ...

Boden für Mutige?

Dachte mancher Ende November bei 5 Dollar vielleicht auch schon ...

Kleine Gute-Nacht-Geschichte über Beazer Homes BZH

http://www.iitm.com/Weekly_upd…1_Dec_12_2007.htm#feature

Time to Get Out of Standard Pacific

... dachte ich auch, als ich heute die fast minus 30% sah. Hoffentlich ist hier noch keiner eingestiegen.

Da kann sich Legg Mason trotzdem ja noch freuen.

Was ist daraus zu lernen? Wovon die Großen zurücktreten, meide es auch. Wie bei Egana.