VALE - Griff ins fallende Messer?

VALE (weltgrößter Eisenerzproduzent, Brasilien) notiert nun zu:
- aktueller Kurs 16 USD (ADR)
- KBV 1,07
- Dividenden-Rendite 7,2% für 2012e
- Dividenden-Rendite 3,6% für 2008, 2009, 2010
- EV/EBITDA 4,6

Weitere Kennzahlen hier:
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VALE3:BZ/key-statistics
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=VALE+Key+Statistics

Umfeld:
- Eisenerzpreise in den letzten 4 Wochen um 19% gefallen, auf ca. 95 USD pro Tonne
- Laut Aussagen VALE machen viele Produzenten unter 120 USD pro Tonne Verlust

Infos hierzu:
August 29, 2012
Iron ore tests the Chinese floor theory
"Prices for the TSI benchmark 62 per cent Fe iron ore stood at $94.8 per tonne on Tuesday, down 19 per cent in the last four weeks. Watching this market is like watching the Titanic, wrote commodity broker London Dry Bulk in a research note."
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-bri…oor-theory/#axzz24xYfAwED

August 28, 2012
Vale Sees Iron-Ore Rebound as China Producers Cut Supply
"Iron-ore below $120 a metric ton is a short-lived situation, the companys Investor Relations Director Roberto Castello Branco told reporters at an event in Rio de Janeiro today. Vale is not among the suppliers planning to reduce output because it has low production costs, he said.
The iron-ore price is below the cost for marginal producers not only in China but also in other countries, Castello Branco said at the sidelines of the Platts SBB Steel Markets in Latin America conference. If you are a producer with higher costs, you wont continue producing at a loss; you will stop your operations."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/…producers-cut-supply.html

Cecilia Jamasmie | August 29, 2012
Skydive in iron ore prices hitting miners

"The general idea is that it would cost at least $120 for an average Chinese mine to produce one additional tonne of iron ore because increasing production would tap lower grades of ore that are more expensive to mine so at that price level it becomes cheaper for Chinese mills to buy iron ore from overseas.

This theory is being severely tested however, because the Chinese iron ore market has developed an unusual dichotomy: domestic iron ore is selling at prices a third higher than imported iron ore."

http://www.mining.com/skydive-…re-prices-hitting-miners/

crozz
Ok, Danke! Werde den Artikel lesen.

Noch ein Artikel von heute der ggf. den Intraday Kurseinbruch von zeitweise 4,5% erklärt:

By Juan Pablo Spinetto - August 29, 2012 12:12 EDT
Vale Slumps as Itau Cuts Earnings View on Iron Prices: Rio Mover

"Vale SA, the worlds largest iron- ore producer, declined for fifth day as prices for the steelmaking material slumped and Banco Itau BBA SA cut profit estimates.

Vale, based in Rio de Janeiro, slid 3.4 percent to 32.26 reais at 12:34 p.m. in Sao Paulo, poised for the lowest closing price since Sept. 2, 2009. The stock has lost 15 percent this year while the Brazilian benchmark has climbed 1.2 percent.

Iron ore for immediate delivery fell 4.8 percent to $90.30 a metric ton today, its 10th consecutive decline to the lowest since November 2009, according to data compiled by The Steel Index Ltd. The slump led Itau analysts Marcos Assumpcao and Andre Pinheiro to cut forecasts for Vales earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization by 13 percent to $20 billion in 2012 and by 12 percent to $23 billion in 2013.

Vales multiples are extremely sensitive to iron ore price variations, the Sao Paulo-based analysts wrote in a note to customers dated yesterday. The market is currently pricing in a much weaker price scenario for 2013."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…=VALE:US&sid=ayR_nDNqCumY

@mmi
Ja, vielleicht. Insbesondere, dass sie die Produktion nicht drosseln wollen, sondern weiterhin Vollgas geben.
Eines dieser Mega-Schiffe soll übrigens eine Japanische Firma in den Philippinen beliefern:

"Vale SA (NYSE:VALE): A Valemax ship is expected to dock at the Villanueva port in the Mindanao island, in the Philippines, for the first time in October. The worlds largest iron ore carrier, with the ability to transport as much as 400,000 metric tons of iron ore and is capable of lowering carbon emissions by 35 percent per ton of ore transported, is to be loaded in the Ponta da Madeira Maritime Terminal, in Maranhão state, Brazil, in September, and is to deliver the cargo to Japans JFE Steel at its Philippines Sinter Corp (NYSE : PSC) in Mindanao. JFE is one of Vales most prominent clients. This will be the ships maiden voyage; the ship is called Vale Minas Gerais. The vessel was the 14th in the Valemax series to be delivered."
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/st…urning-heads.html/?ref=YF

Hier noch ein Artikel von heute von Paulo Santos, den Autor hat crozz erwähnt. Santos geht davon aus, dass der Preis pro Tonne wieder auf das Niveau vor dem China-Boom in Höhe von 75 USD zurückfallen könnte.

Sollte man dieses Szenario als wahrscheinlich erachten wären wohl aktuelle Käufe von VALE verfrüht.

Paulo Santos - August 29, 2012
Iron Ore Crash Worsens

"The intention of this article is just to update on what's happening in the iron ore market in China. Basically things are getting worse fast. When I last wrote on iron ore, spot prices were still hovering at $110 per ton, and futures were around $99 per ton.

Today, these have fallen to around $90 spot, $86 futures (and these aren't updated for August 29 yet!). It should be kept in mind that my last update was just last week. So spot prices fell 18% and futures fell 13% in a single week.

Where it goes from here, short term

One important thing to understand is that there are still few signs of steel production slowing down meaningfully in China. Clearly the market is oversupplied, but very few mills are throwing in the towel just yet. This means that the iron ore panic still has to contend with a significant, if temporary, reduction in demand.

On the other hand, the first frail signs of reduced Chinese iron ore supply are already appearing, as the very highest cost suppliers fall off the map rather quickly. These haven't been enough to stop the price drops, though.

What's more likely to happen given these conditions, is for the panic to continue and reach for lower prices, which will eventually choke off not only internal supply, but even some importers.

Where it goes from here, medium to long term

One of the things which impresses the most while going through the major producers' earnings reports, is how every single one of them is expanding production and has plans to expand production in the near and long term. Be it Rio Tinto (RIO), Vale S.A. (VALE), BHP Billiton (BHP), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF) or Fortescue (FSUMF.PK), every producer has either brownfield developments, greenfield developments, debottleneckings, etc that enable them to both show increased production now, and expect increased production in the near and medium term future. Sometimes, the expected increased production is massive when compared to the entire market, for instance Fortescue expects to triple production into mid-2013, bringing in an additional 100 million tons of iron ore. To have a feeling for how much this is, BHP's production in the latest fiscal year was 179 million tons, so Fortescue is gunning to bring in an additional 55% of the entire BHP production within the next year. The market, as it is today, doesn't seem able to handle this.

Not only is every large producer increasing production and planning on increasing near term, medium term and long term production significantly, but every small producer one finds is also doing the same. There are countless news of 2-3-5-6-10 million ton projected increases in production from small players. There are also entire new mines about to enter production, such as the 27.6 million ton Sino project which has seen countless delays and is now expected to come online during November 2012.

What does all of this mean? It probably means something BHP has already expressed in presentations - that the worldwide iron ore demand is about to be met by increased capacity coming from low-cost sources. Such has the potential to transform iron ore pricing.

Iron ore pricing

As in most markets, iron ore pricing tended to be established by the highest marginal cost producers needed to meet demand. As new low-cost supply comes online, the highest cost margin producers will have a lower and lower cost, and equilibrium prices needed to supply the market will be lower and lower.

We know that the largest producers have costs below $50 per ton and will in all likelihood continue to be profitable. However, as prices are set lower and lower, they'll be less profitable. At this point, given all the new production capacity that's expected to come online, together with the likelihood of stagnated demand in China for some time, it would seem likely that iron ore will first find an equilibrium price below $100 per ton, and will then converge to a pricing regime that's similar to what existed before this decade's China boom. That would mean $75 per ton and below.

Conclusion

The iron ore crash I have been predicting has already happened. This last week saw an intensification of the crash. Right now the focus turns into trying to understand the implications for the medium to long term.

The first signs indicate that it's likely iron ore will revert to pricing that will be consistently below $100 per ton, with below $75 per ton being possible over the longer term as more low-cost projects come online."
http://seekingalpha.com/articl…rash-worsens?source=yahoo

Iron Ore delivered to Qingdao China - 62% Ferrous Content - USD/dry metric ton

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MBIO62DA:IND/chart

Noch ein Artikel von Paulo Santos. Legt man seine Bewertung zugrunde, dann würde VALE bei 75 USD pro Tonne immer noch ca. 6,3 Mrd USD net income erwirtschaften. (Produktionskosten liegen bei ca. 50 USD die Tonne.) Bei aktuellem Kurs ergäbe dies KGV 13.

Paulo Santos - August 27, 2012
A Look At Vale's Iron Ore Exposure
http://seekingalpha.com/articl…21-iron-ore-crash-worsens

Danke MMI. Der Vortrag von James Chanos ist recht interessant, sodass ich die betreffenden Folien extrahiert und mit ein paar Kommentaren versehen habe.

Interessant fand ich insbesondere, dass der durchschnittliche Preis für Eisenerz in den letzten 30 Jahren bei 32 USD pro Tonne liegt.
Außerdem, dass der Export von Eisenerz 17% vom brasilianischen Export beträgt (2010).

+++
Beware: The Global Value Trap!
Value Investing Conference
October 17, 2011 (VALE bei 23,31 USD)
James Chanos
Kynikos Associates

Folie 4
Value Traps: Some Common Characteristics

• Cyclical and/or overly dependent on one product (--> ist bei VALE definitiv der Fall!)

Current Value Traps

Folie 17
Nationalistic Commodity: Iron Ore Countries for Sale

• Leveraged to Chinese growth
  - Growth in iron ore demand is driven by Chinas fixed asset investment boom
  - Chinas share of global iron ore consumption is 59% (June 2011) up from 52% (June 2008 )*
• Iron ore extraction becoming more costly
  - Major growth projects lie in increasingly difficult to access geographical locations
  - Enormous investment in rail, port and energy facilities required to access new projects
• Governments use companies as extension of public policy
  - Exploit the industry as a source of revenue and taxes
  - Capital deployment at the suggestion of government officials
  *Source: Macquarie, October 2011

Folie 18
Vale (NYSE: VALE): China or Bust?

• Cyclical peak creates impression of value
  - Forward P/E 5.1x*, operating cash flow margin over 45%
  - $160/ton iron ore price more than 5x 30-year historical average
• Capital expenditure inflation is soaring 2011 budget of $24B; up 85% over 2010
• Questionable capital allocation VALE Navy
  - 12 Chinamax 400k dead weight ton very large ore carriers (VLOCs )
  - 'Its not our policy to make money in freight.' Jose Carlos Martins, Vale Executive Officer of Marketing, Sales and Strategy
• Enormous exposure to uncertain Chinese demand growth
  - China accounted for 43% of Vales iron ore sales in 2010, up from 29% in 2008
  (--> laut Geschäftsbericht 33,1% 2010 und 32,4% 2011. Asien gesamt 53,3% 2010 und 52,8% 2011)
  - Reliance on continued fixed asset investment growth in China
• Brazilian Government influence on strategic decision-making
  - Key driver of economy - iron ore exports accounted for 17% of total exports in 2010 *
  - Recent resignation of CEO Agnelli amid rumored tensions with newly elected government
  *Source: Based on Bloomberg estimates

Dividend Policy
Real and Dollar
1. The Executive Committee of Vale will announce by January 31 of each year, a proposal to be approved by the Board of Directors, of a minimum dividend to be paid to Vale shareholders during the year. The minimum value announced, expressed in US dollars (USD), will be established according to the Company's expected performance in the year of distribution.

2. The proposal will establish payment in two semiannual installments, under the form of dividends and/or interest on shareholders equity, to be paid respectively in April and October.

3. In case that the proposal is approved, the value established will be paid in Brazilian Reais (BRL). The amount will be obtained from the conversion of the USD amount to BRL using the USD/BRL exchange rate bid value (Ptax option 5) informed by the Central Bank of Brazil the day prior to the Board meeting that will decide upon the declaration and payment of dividends.

4. During the year, the Executive Committee of Vale may propose to its Board of Directors, based on the analysis of Vale´s cash position evolution, the payment of an extra installment, complementary to the minimum dividend announced in January. If approved by the Board of Directors, this extra installment can be paid together with any of the other two installments previously established.

http://www.vale.com.br/en-us/i…onista/pages/default.aspx

+++ für 2012 sieht es so aus +++
Vale proposes US$ 6 billion for 2012 minimum dividend
Rio de Janeiro, January 16, 2012 Vale S.A. (Vale) announces that its Executive Board has approved and will submit to the Board of Directors a proposal for the distribution of a minimum dividend of US$ 6 billion in 2012, equivalent to US$ 1.177095354 per share for both common and preferred shares outstanding, to be distributed in two installments, on April 30 and October 31, 2012.

The Board of Directors will evaluate the proposal submitted by the senior management, regarding each installment, in the meetings scheduled for April 13 and October 16, 2012.

If the proposal is approved by our Board of Directors, the payment of each installment will be made in Brazilian reais, calculated on the basis of the Brazilian real/US dollar exchange rate (Ptax option 5) published by the Central Bank of Brazil on the business day prior to the Board of Directors meeting that approves the dividend proposal.

The minimum dividend of US$ 6 billion represents an increase of 50% compared to the minimum dividend announced in 2011.

The proposed minimum dividend is consistent with Vales financial policy, which aims to provide a strong support to the exploitation of profitable growth opportunities alongside the preservation of a sound balance sheet simultaneously with the focus on discipline in capital allocation.

http://www.vale.com.br/en-US/investidores/press-releases/Pages/Vale-proposes-US$-6-billion-for-2012-minimum-dividend.aspx

Graham & Doddsville
An investment newsletter from the students of Columbia Business School
Spring 2012

"... If you look at the price of iron ore in real terms since the 1920s, it basically traded between $30 and $45. Iron ore is not hard to find, its pretty much everywhere. The cost to extract it was around $30 per metric ton in real terms. In 2005 it suddenly took off and it got to $180 last year. Its back down to $140 right now, and people are modeling out their profit forecasts based on a range of $120 to $160. Well, what if it gets back to $30 or $40? You might want to put your lower bound a bit lower here. Everyones just looking at the last four years. The last four years was the China boom. It was a once in a lifetime build out of infrastructure in the most populous country of the world. After you have your third international airport in Hainan, China, you probably dont need a fourth one especially when no one is using the second one. In this case, things are really two or three standard deviations from the norm, and thats what you need to be looking for. If iron ore prices were $50, I really wouldnt care, but at $140-$180 with more capacity coming on and lower demand in the future, I think were in for a disaster."

http://www4.gsb.columbia.edu/filemgr?file_id=7310999