Einhorn-Jagd (Short-Ideen)

SPAC-Mania machts möglich: WeWork geht doch an die Börse:

https://techcrunch.com/2021/03/26/wew…public-markets/

Zitat

Enter WeWork. Yes, the company famous for torching a mountain of cash that would rival the Ever Given in sheer bulk is going public via a SPAC. This morning we’re going through its investor presentation, asking ourselves questions like, “Is this as nasty a business as it was a few years ago?” and “Why, oh God, why do we have to talk about WeWork again?”

Yihaa !!!

Klingt gut.

Für Shorts

Zitat von memyselfandi007

Auch putzig ist der Erfolgs IPO Lemonade. Die Firma machte 69 mio USD Nettoprämie in 2019, wenn es läuft vielleicht 150 mio 2020.

Das wären bei aktuell 4 Mrd market cap ca. 27x Umsatz.

Das ist zwar billiger als Zoom aber das Versicherungsgeschäft skaliert nur bedingt. Die Bruttomarge (Prämie abzgl. Schäden und Kosten) kann eigentlich nicht über 30% gehen weil sonst die traditionelle Konkurrenz ohne "AI" billiger ist.

Das macht fundamental eigentlich sehr wenig Sinn. Admiral als meine Benchmark notiert bei 2x Umsatz....

Kleiner Spaß am Rande: Lemonade bezeichnet sich als "Public Benefit Corp".....

Mein "Lieblings Tech Einhorn" lemonade. Lemonade hat jetzt eine "run rate" von 250 Mio USD Prämie. Netto Prämie run rate ist ca. 100 Mio. Netto Prämie Q1 war 25 Mio.

Das Wachstum beruht anscheinend vor allem auf neuen Produkten. Die reine Schadenquote in Q1 war 121% aufgrund des Wintereinbruchs in Texas.

Verlust war in Q1 erstaunlich -50 Mio USD, also 2xUmsatz.

Der Markt zahlt dafür immer noch knapp 4,5 Mrd USD was für eine schnell wachsende Versicherung schon erstaunlich ist.

Wenn man bedenkt dass sie maximal eine "Bruttomarge" von 30% auf die Nettoprämie verdienen, zahlt man aktuell 150x potentielle Bruttoergebnis.

Da geht fundamental noch einiges nach unten:

Muddy Waters ist jetzt short Lemonade und siehaben wohl ein Datenleck entdeckt:

https://techcrunch.com/2021/05/13/lem…d-account-data/

Zitat

Carson Block, founder of investment research firm Muddy Waters Research, sent the letter to Lemonade co-founder and chief executive Daniel Schreiber on Thursday, describing the bug that allowed anyone to inadvertently access personally identifiable data from customers’ accounts as “unforgivably negligent.”

Block’s letter said: “By clicking on search results from public search engines, we shockingly found ourselves logged in to and able to edit Lemonade customers’ accounts without having to provide any user credentials whatsoever.”

Lemonade launched in 2015 and offers renters’, homeowners’ and pet insurance policies across the U.S. and Europe. The company went public last year and saw its shares rocket by more than 130% on the day of its initial public offering. Lemonade this week reported a $49 million quarterly loss, deeper than what Wall Street was expecting.

The bug was co-discovered by Muddy Waters Research and Wolfpack Research, Block said. In a tweet, Wolfpack lead analyst Reed Sherman said one of Muddy Waters’ security experts “was able to send me a PDF of my renter’s insurance policy less than 15 minutes after this was first discovered.”

Block told TechCrunch that his firm is shorting the company’s stock, per his letter, “because it is clear Lemonade does not give a fuck about securing its customers’ sensitive personal information.” Block said in his letter that Lemonade should “shut down its website, APIs, and mobile application” until the issue is fixed, which he says may date back to July 2020.

Block published his letter to Lemonade with redactions as to not give away specific details of the bug. In a call, Block provided more details about the bug to TechCrunch in order to verify the vulnerability. One indexed search result let us log into a person’s Lemonade account and view their name, address, and quote details without ever asking for the user’s password.

In a tweet, Lemonade’s president Shai Wininger said the bug is “not a vulnerability, it’s by design.” Yael Wissner-Levy, a spokesperson for Lemonade, also said that this was by design. A short time after the letter was made public, some of the indexed results stopped working.

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