Mal etwas handfestes: Seadrill

Hatte ich auch schonmal auf dem Radar - die Idee ist klasse!

SIA hatten in mehreren Newslettern etwas zu Oilrigs: Allerdings waren die schon ab 2007 dabei, was vielleicht "suboptimal" war. Trotzdem die Gedanken zum Geschäft bleiben gleich:

http://www.s-i-a.ch/SIA/files/…200712_sia_newsletter.pdf

Im Wertpapier-Forum gibt's zwei größere (und qualitativ hochwertigere als W:O) Treats zu Seadrill und Deep Sea Supply.

http://www.wertpapier-forum.de/index.php?showtopic=13598

Ich erinnere mich daran, dass Brasilien (Petrobras) einen Großteil der weltweiten Kapazitäten für Tiefwasserbohrungen angemietet hat, um die großen Ölvorkommen vor ihrer Küste zu erschließen. Genau kann ich es jedoch nicht quantifizieren.

Diamond Offshore (DO) vermietet an Petrobas. Hatte die auch mal empfohlen, könnte man ja mal vergleichen. Gefallen mir auch sehr gut!

Petrobras awards contracts worth $2.3 billion to Diamond Offshore Drilling
US-based Diamond Offshore Drilling has been awarded four drilling contracts by Petrobras in Brazil. The commitments for the four semi-submersible drilling rigs could generate combined maximum total revenue of around $2.3 billion, in addition to potential performance bonus payments, and represent 22 years of contract drilling backlog.
...
http://www.energy-business-review.com/news/petrobras_awards_contracts_worth_$2.3_billion_to_diamond_offshore_drilling

/e
Wer gefällt mir wohl besser? ;D

In der gleichen Branche operieren auch noch Noble (NE) und Transocean (RIG). Noble war einige Zeit von den Kennzahlen das günstigste Unternehmen, weiß aber nicht, ob das im Moment immer noch so ist.
Seadrill gehört zum gleichen "Konzern" wie Frontline und Ship Finance.

Joa dem Fredrickson

Betrifft zwar Transocean, gehört aber auch zu den 'handfesten Investments'.

Zitat: Explosion auf Bohrinsel: Golf von Mexiko droht Ölkatastrophe

Nach der Havarie einer amerikanischen Bohrinsel drohen mehr als zwei Millionen Liter Erdöl ins Meer zu laufen. Am Mittwoch war die Ölplattform "Deepwater Horizon" in Flammen geraten. Elf Arbeiter werden noch immer vermisst.

Dem Golf von Mexiko droht eine Ölkatastrophe: Zwei Tage nach einer schweren Explosion ist eine brennende US-Bohrinsel am Donnerstag vor der US-Küste gesunken. Die "Deepwater Horizon" verschwand rund 190 Kilometer südlich von New Orleans in den Fluten. Elf Arbeiter blieben weiterhin verschollen. Die US-Küstenwache befürchtet, dass bis zu 700.000 Gallonen Öl (rund zweieinhalb Millionen Liter) in den Golf gelangen könnten........

kompletter Text http://isht.comdirect.de/html/…NEWS_142520551:1272003360

Merkwürdigerweise hat weder der Kurs von RIG noch der von BP reagiert. Sind die so gut versichert ?

als peer group members:
noble corp (NE)
TTM PE 6,65
tidwater (TDW)
TTM PE 8,43
ensco (ESV)
TTM PE 9,16

genau die Kandidaten finden sich im GuruScreener

Und was für schöne Feuerwerke:

Zitat

Original von looser
23.04.2010 08:41
.... Merkwürdigerweise hat weder der Kurs von RIG noch der von BP reagiert. Sind die so gut versichert ?

Hätte ich doch geshortet

Im mechanischen Screener mit neuen Kursen ist Transocean aber einen ganz schönen Satz nach vorne gesprungen und mittlerweile auf Platz 77 im ersten Dezil... Allerdings sind das natürlich nur Vergangenheitsdaten... ;D

Sind leider immer nur Daten aus der Vergangenheit. Sollten aber die aus GB_2009 sein (Umsatz 11556, Gewinn 3181, wenn nicht fehlt ein Update ;-)). Für die nahe Zukuft würde ich aber den GB_2002 nehmen ;D.

p.s. Ich ärgere mich immer noch nicht geshortet zu haben. Ich war leider verwundert über die nach Unfall steigenden Kurse und dachte die sind so gut versichert ;(.

Nach short kommt long, oder so.

http://blog.madhedgefundtrader…efund-trader--friday.aspx

Etliche Kennzahlen auf einen Blick, zB KBV 0,86

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=RIG

Und nochmal die entscheidenden Sätze vom Madhedgefondusw oben:

But a few energy hedge fund managers I know have been going through the companys contract with British Petroleum (BP) with a fine tooth comb, and it turns out that the latter agreed to indemnify RIG for any accidents, including spills. Unless BP can prove deliberate fraud or negligence, the cost of the entire disaster is going to come out of its pocket. I know the management of RIG fairly well, as I once negotiated to participate as a partner in another offshore project. In the end, I didnt go ahead because the $10 million minimum bite was more than I was willing to lay out. But youll never find a finer and more professional team in the oil patch.

Im neuen Spiegel ist ein Bericht über den Unfall, nachdem die entscheidenden Schritte auf ausdrückliche Anweisung von BP getan worden sein sollen.

Aus dem letzten Quartalsbericht:

Zitat

Deepwater Horizon incidentOn April 22, 2010, the Ultra-Deepwater Floater Deepwater Horizon sank following a fire and explosion while operating in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and has been declared a total loss. Eleven persons are missing and presumed dead and others were injured as a result of the incident. As we continue to investigate the cause of the incident, we are evaluating its consequences, which are expected to have a material effect on our future consolidated results of operations and cash flows and may have a material effect on our future consolidated statement of financial position. Although the rig was operating under a contract which was to extend through September 2013, the total loss of the rig results in an automatic termination of the agreement. The backlog associated with the drilling contract under which Deepwater Horizon was operating was approximately $590 million. The rig had an insured value of $560 million, subject to a deductible ranging from $0.5 million to $1.5 million. As of May 5, 2010, we have received $401 million as partial payment of the expected insurance recoveries. We carry insurance that covers wreck removal, if required, subject to certain limits and deductibles. We can provide no assurances as to the estimated costs, insurance recoveries, or other actions that will result from this incident. See OutlookInsurance matters, Part II. Other Information, Item 1. Legal Proceedings and Part II. Other Information, Item 1A. Risk Factors.

Und hier der Teil der Risiko-Faktoren:

Zitat

Item 1A. Risk Factors

In addition to the risk factor set forth below and the other information set forth in this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, careful consideration should be given to factors described in Item 1A. Risk Factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2009, that could materially affect our business, financial condition or future results.


The Deepwater Horizon incident may have a material adverse effect on us.

Our Ultra-Deepwater Floater Deepwater Horizon, which had been drilling a well for its operator in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, sank on April 22, 2010 after an explosion and fire onboard the rig that began on April 20, 2010. Eleven persons are missing and presumed dead and others were injured as a result of the incident. The combined response team was unable to stem the flow of hydrocarbons from the well prior to the sinking of the rig and efforts to contain the flow of hydrocarbons are still underway. The Departments of Homeland Security and Interior have begun a joint investigation into the cause of the incident. The U.S. Coast Guard and the Minerals Management Service share jurisdiction over the investigation into the incident. In addition, various committees and subcommittees of the House of Representatives and the Senate of the United States have requested our participation in hearings related to the incident. We have also received a request to preserve information from the U.S. Department of Justice. We may also face additional requests for participation in hearings from the Congress of the United States or investigations from other governmental bodies. There have also been numerous lawsuits filed related to the incident, and we expect additional lawsuits to be filed. We expect to incur significant legal fees and costs in responding to these matters.


As a result of the incident, our business will be negatively impacted by the loss of revenue from the rig. We do not carry insurance for loss of revenue. The rig is insured for total loss coverage of $560 million and wreck removal, subject to certain policy limits, to the extent removal can be carried out and is required.

- 37 -

Index

Under our drilling contract for Deepwater Horizon, the operator has agreed, among other things, to assume full responsibility for and defend, release and indemnify us from any loss, expense, claim, fine, penalty or liability for pollution or contamination, including control and removal thereof, arising out of or connected with operations under the contract (other than for pollution or contamination originating on or above the surface of the water from fuels, lubricants, motor oils and other substances, as to which we similarly agreed to assume responsibility and protect, release and indemnify the operator). The operator has also agreed, among other things, (1) to defend, release and indemnify us against loss or damage to the reservoir, and loss of property rights to oil, gas and minerals below the surface of the earth and (2) to defend, release and indemnify us and bear the cost of bringing the well under control in the event of a blowout or other loss of control. However, to the extent any of the indemnities from the operator are not enforceable or the operator does not indemnify us, our insurance policies may not fully cover these amounts. In addition, we may be subject to various claims, costs, penalties and fines for which we may not be indemnified. Also under the drilling contract, we have, among other things, generally agreed to defend, release and indemnify the operator for the claims for personal injury or death of our employees and those of our subcontractors as well as for damage to the rig, equipment and removal costs. We carry personal injury and other third-party liability insurance coverage; however, this coverage is subject to significant deductibles and to overall aggregate policy limits. See Notes to Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements Note 12ContingenciesRetained risk. Insurance coverage can be the subject of uncertainties and, particularly in the event of large claims, potential disputes with insurance carriers.


Our business may also be adversely impacted by any negative publicity relating to the incident and us, any negative perceptions about us by customers, the skilled personnel that we require to support our operations or others, any increased premiums for insurance or difficulty in obtaining coverage, any claims that may be asserted against us and any other expenses that are not covered, in whole or in part, by our insurance policies or indemnification arrangements, the outcome of any investigations relating to the incident and the diversion of managements attention from our other operations to focus on matters relating to the incident. Any increased regulation of the drilling industry as a whole that arises out of this incident could result in higher operating costs, which could, in turn, adversely affect our operating results. Although we are currently unable to estimate the full impact of the incident on our business, the incident is expected to have a material effect on our future consolidated results of operations and cash flows and may have a material effect on our future consolidated statement of financial position.

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