Polnische Aktien

Zitat

Original von woodpecker

Ja, das ist mir eben auch noch nicht klar.
Was außer sparsame Motoren plausibel klingt wären rückläufiger Bedarf an Heizöl, zugunsten von Gas.
Falls aber die Vorhersagen irgendwas mit angeblichen Umstieg auf Elektroautos zu tun hat, dann glaube ich sie schlicht nicht, in der Richtung wird m.E. weniger passieren als erwartet.

Vielleicht jammert dieser BP-Chef ja auch aus taktischen Gründen?!

Allgemein würde ich für Osteuropa/Balkan/Mena kurzfristig erstmal steigenden Benzinbedarf erwarten dank zunehmender Motorisierung.

wp

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Halte ich für falsch...

Die sind doch motorisiert, zum Teil mit richtig alten Autos!

ENEA mit guten Halbjahreszahlen...

Damit müsste EV/EBITDA (ttm) unter 3 sein... Tauron ist da bei 4.

KBV dürfte bei beiden um 0,6 sein

Good results of ENEA CG after H1 2012
Results of ENEA CG in H1 2012 vs. H1 2011:
Net revenues increase by 5.8 per cent
EBIT increase by 21.0 per cent
EBITDA increase by 21.7 per cent
Net profit increase by 10.2 per cent
EBITDA result in particular segments in H1 2012 vs. H1 2011:
Distribution - increase by 19.9 per cent
Generation - increase by 18.6 per cent
Trading - increase by 11.1 per cent
Other activities - increase by 71.6 per cent
Stable efficiency of operations of ENEA CG:
ROE in H1 2012 amounted to 10.6 per cent in comparison to 10.3 per cent in H1 2011
ROA in H1 2012 amounted to 7.7 per cent in comparison to 6.7 per cent in H1 2011
Thanks to the updating in the Kozienice Power Plant - even lower CO2 emission rate (in H1 2012: 842 kg/MWh and in H1 2011: 870 kg/MWh) and one of the lowest rates of coal consumption (in H1 2012: 395 kg/MWh)

Scheinbar müssen jetzt auch tauron und enea beim AKW-Bau mit ran...

KGHM, PGE, Tauron, Enea in Talks on Joint Nuclear Power Project
Posted: Friday, August 17, 2012

Four companies controlled by the Polish government are in talks to build a nuclear power plant together, the country's treasury minister said Thursday. "Talks between the companies are under way on financial engagements into the nuclear project," Mikolaj Budzanowski said. The four companies are Enea SA (ENA.WA), Tauron Polska Energia SA (TPE.WA), PGE SA (PGE.WA) and KGHM SA (KGH.SA). The Polish government has charged PGE to build a nuclear power plant featuring three reactors and a capacity of about 3,000 megawatts. The power plant is expected to be launched after 2020. Poland gets 95% of its electricity from coal, but is aiming for 16% of it to come from nuclear power by 2030.

IPO zu KGV 4,3

Poland Seeks $271 Million in PAK Sale, Biggest IPO in Year

Poland is seeking to raise as much as 858 million zloty ($271 million) from the sale of its 50 percent stake in ZE PAK SA utility in what is set to be the countrys largest initial public offering in more than a year.

The government, which offers 26 million shares, set the maximum price for individual investors at 33 zloty a share, according to an IPO prospectus published on PAKs website today. The price range for institutional investors, who can place bids until Oct. 22, was set at 26 zloty to 33 zloty, according to the terms obtained by Bloomberg News today.

The price looks attractive near the lower end of the range, Adam Drozdowski, who helps manage the equivalent of $275 million at Axa TFI SA in Warsaw, said by phone. This is a restructuring story and theres lots of risk after the company bought coal mining assets this year.

The IPO is set to be the biggest in Warsaw since the 5.37 billion-zloty sale of state-owned coal mine Jastrzebska Spolka Weglowa SA (JSW) in June 2011. The government has raised 8.12 billion zloty from asset sales this year to help finance the budget deficit, compared with its full-year goal of 10 billion zloty. In July Poland sold PAK two coal mines for 175.5 million zloty.
Billionaire Owner

Billionaire Zygmunt Solorz-Zak owns 49 percent of PAK and plans to raise his stake to 51.7 percent in the IPO, according to the companys presentation in Warsaw today. Solorz-Zak pledged not to sell his holding for 180 days after the IPO.

The Konin, Poland-based company will start trading on the Warsaw Stock Exchange on Oct. 30, becoming the fourth-largest Polish power producer on the bourse after PGE SA (PGE), Tauron Polska Energia SA (TPE) and Enea SA. (ENA) The final price that investors will pay for PAK will be set on Oct. 22, according to the prospectus.

PGE shares sank 2.5 percent to 17.56 zloty at 2:30 p.m. in Warsaw, heading for the lowest close since May 25, while Tauron lost 2.7 percent to a two-month low of 4.71 zloty as PAKs sale was priced below the industrys valuation.

Based on the IPO price range, PAK is valued at 1.35 billion zloty to 1.71 billion zloty, or 4.3 times to 5.4 times earnings seen this year. PGE currently trades 8 times profit, while Tauron is valued 6.8 times earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

PAK, which has 2,462 megawatts of installed generation capacity, posted net income of 214.4 million zloty on sales of 1.28 billion zloty in the first half of the year. The company expects its net income in 2012 to be close to last years 317 million zloty, Chief Executive Officer Katarzyna Muszkat said at a news conference today.

The company plans to spend 1.6 billion zloty by 2015 to upgrade its Patnow plant and a further 2.8 billion zloty to build two gas-fired units, it said in the prospectus.

Credit Suisse Group AG, ING Groep NV, JPMorgan & Chase Co. and UniCredit SpA are global coordinators for the sale, while Espirito Santo Investment Bank, Ipopema Securities SA, Trigon Dom Maklerski SA and PKO Bank Polski SA are joint book runners.

Marketcap 1,35- 1,7 Milliarden

EBITDA 769 Mio

Bin mal gespannt wie die Verschuldung ist...

ZE PAK is the fifth largest Polish electricity generator in terms of installed generation capacity and electricity generation with a market share of approximately 6.9% in 2011. In 2011, it generated consolidated revenues of approximately PLN2,689m (approximately EUR672m) and EBITDA of approximately PLN769m (approximately EUR192m) representing a 29% EBITDA margin1. In July 2012 the Company completed the acquisition of two lignite mines, PAK KWB Konin S.A. (KWBK) and PAK KWB Adamow S.A. (KWBA), which provide approximately 95% of total fuel and 100% of lignite to ZE PAK Group. Following the acquisition, ZE PAK Group is an integrated power generator with its own lignite resources.

nachdem der ipo-bericht irgendwie nur in polnisch vorliegt mal ein paar übersetztungsversuche:

Stand Juni 2012

KapitaB wBasny ogóBem = Eigenkapital 3,44 Milliarden

Suma pasywów= Gesamtkapital 5,36 Milliarden

==> EKQ= 64%

==> KBV= 0,39

Bie|ca cz[ oprocentowanych kredytów i po|yczek= kurzfr. Finanzschulden = 0,222 Milliarden

Oprocentowane kredyty i po|yczki = langfr. Finanzschulden = 0,91 Milliarden

Zrodki pieni|ne i ich ekwiwalenty = Cash= 0,572 Milliarden

==> EV= 1,35 +0,222+0,91 - 0,572 = 1,91 Milliarden

==> EV/EBITDA = 1,91/0,769 = 2,5

Bloomberg sagt:

PGE EV/EBITDA = 3,38 KBV= 0,83

Tauron EV/EBITDA= 3,82 KBV= 0,51

ENEA EV/EBITDA= 2,87 KBV= 0,66

Frag mich warum ein Staat seine Assets zu KBV= 0,39 verkauft... Die scheinen keinen Hans Eichel als Finanzminister zu haben

eine alte Faustregel die mir mal ein Versorgerguru genant hat ist die:

Solange Versorger viel investieren müssen/sollen, ist der Regulator nett, damit das Kapital fliesst.

Sind die Invetsitionen abgeschlossen werden die Schrauben angezogen.

In Polen könnte das natürlich bedeuten, dass sie erstmal nett sein müssen.....

MMI

Es könnte auch bedeuten, dass man eben einen Privatisierungsplan hat und zurzeit die Bewertung polnischer Aktien nicht hoch und die von polnischen Versorgern sehr niedrig ist. Und da sie nur Nr. 4 sind, muss man halt weit runter mit dem Preis...

Der genannte Milliadär wollte vor 2008 allein 2 Milliarden für seinen 48%-Anteil haben. Heute kann ENEA die ganze Firma für 1,3 Milliarden haben

Schon köstlich wie günstig das heute alles geht und RWE/Eon haben ihr ganzes Geld zu Höchstpreisen verzockt und müssen nebenbei noch Angies Wende finanzieren.

2 Wasserversorger aus Polen:

Aqua SA

Laut Bloomberg:

KBV 0,38
EV/EBITDA 2,77

Net Debt 6 Mio bei EK= 341 Mio

Wodkan...

KBV= 0,14
EV/EBITDA= 3,74

Net Debt 3,4 Mio bei EK 214 Mio

Konstant solch niedrige EKR habe ich auch noch nie gesehen...

Tauron mit neuem ATL ...

Ich könnte mir gut vorstellen, dass mancher fonds bei tauron geld abgezogen hat, um in ze pak investieren zu können

Ze Pak war zwischenzeitlich auch schon 4% unter IPO-Kurs

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In the past, when Polands treasury ministry sold off big state controlled companies through the Warsaw Stock Exchange there was a frisson of excitement among investors something that seems to be missing ahead of next weeks debut of power producer ZE PAK.

Earlier this week the government set the share price at 26.20 zlotys ($8.19), near the very bottom of its bookbuilding range of 26-33 zlotys, according to Reuters.

Only about 14,000 individual investors, most of them from Poland, signed up for the 15 per cent of the treasurys shares available to them.

Most of the intuitional interest came from Polish pension funds, as foreign investors generally hung back, Pawel Tamborski, a deputy treasury minister, told the Polish press.

The treasury is selling 50 per cent of the power producer, which has 7 per cent of the Polish market, and control of the company will shift to vehicles controlled by Polish media and telecoms billionaire Zygmunt Solorz-Zak.

Mikolaj Budzanowski, the treasury minister, put a positive spin on the lacklustre results, saying: 26.20 zlotys a share is an adequate price when taking a look at market conditions.

The ministry will take in 680m zlotys from the sale, bumping up the overall proceeds from selling state assets to 8.8bn zlotys this year, close to the goal of earning 10bn zlotys.

The unenthusiastic response from investors stems partly from PAKs own problems. Analysts feel it is undercapitalised and the size of Polands fifth-largest power producer wasnt enough to excite west European and US pension funds.

Also casting a pall over the IPO was a warning from Greenpeace and CEE Bankwatch that the power generator posed a risk due to its reliance on coal.

Resistance to ZE PAKs coal mining plans, coupled with their deadly air pollution and significant greenhouse gas emissions, make this a risky investment that should be avoided, said the environmental organisation.

Polish investors are also a little wary of the stock exchange and IPOs. The last big government IPO was of JSW, a coal minister, which debuted to enormous enthusiasm in the summer of 2011 at 136 zlotys but is now trading at 84.10 zlotys a share.

Those investors who did take the plunge and signed up for PAK shares may have a long wait before they see much of a profit from their investment.

An analysis by Open Finance, a financial advisory, notes that the seven power companies listed on the WSE havent been the source of much joy for investors. While the blue chip WIG20 index has gained 12 per cent since the beginning of the year, the exchanges power companies index has slumped by 5 per cent.

The only power company to have provided a big pop on its first day of trading in 2009 was PGE, the countrys largest utility, which rose by 13 per cent. Two other IPOs of Tauron and Enea generated gains of about 1 per cent. Looking back at performance since their IPOs, PGE has wilted by 20 per cent, while the other two are flat.

The performance of Polish power companies is part of a broader international slump in the sector, which makes any short-term gains by PAK investors unlikely, writes Roman Przasnyski of Open Finance.

Irgendwie erinnert mich die Farbe des Firmenlogos an einen großen Börsengang in Deutschland, der auch die Anleger immer ärmer macht

Schlechtes Omen?

Bundespräsident Joachim Gauck Polen sind fleißiger als Deutsche ...

Es gibt ja auch immer mehr Autos zum klauen

http://www.bild.de/politik/inl…utsche-27269436.bild.html

Zitat

Original von Anika

Alles klar: Polen klauen Autos und die Juden waren an der Pest schuld und haben Jesus getötet, oder?!

Sollen wir einmal die Schadenssumme, die durch von Polen geklauten Autos entsteht, der Schadenssumme durch von Deutschen hinterzogenen Steuern gegenüber stellen um zu beurteilen, welches Volk das kriminellere ist?

Oder bleiben wir auch bei dieser weiteren kleinen volksverhetzenden Entgleisung wieder bei einem fröhlichen: http://vimeo.com/11323352 ?

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Nun vllt einfach durch die Anzahl der potenziellen Täter teilen

Die Polen sind zu 90% ein absolut fleissiges und tolles Volk. Das meinen vollen Respekt verdient und mich persönlich absolut überrascht hat. hier gehen die Vorurteile absolut nicht auf

Mal ein paar Daten:

- Wochenende-/Nachtsschicht bringt bei denen, die ich kenne das gleiche wie tagsüber

- 2 Wochen unbezahlter Urlaub, Krankentage werden sogar noch abgezogen

- Studenten studieren zu 50% Teilzeit, also am WE. So nutzt man Räume voll aus und die Teilzeit-Leute können arbeiten

- Bafög kennt man nicht. Friss oder stirb

- 50% studieren an privaten Hochschulen (davon gibts auch Aktien). D.h. 100 Euro Teilzeit bzw. 150 Euro Vollzeit pro Monat. 10 Mal pro Jahr. Teilzeit also auf den Niveau von deutschen Studiengebühren. Und, dass bei 6-7 Zloty pro Stunde Studentenlohn (also 1,50 bis 1,75). Dafür würde kein deutscher Student Samstag Nacht 12h am Stück arbeiten. Wohlgemerkt von Leuten, die dieses Berufliche Gymnasium (also mit Berufsausbildung + Abi) abgeschlossen haben

- Dazu gibt es diese Karriere-Geilheit nicht. Frauen bekommen nicht erst ab 40 Jahren Kinder

Die Leute haben sich mit ihrem Schicksal voll abgefunden. Solange man überlebt, passt es schon.

Danzig, Krakau, Breslau und Posen sind echt einen Trip wert. Warschau kann man sich schenken. In Zakopane fährt man zu Spottpreisen Ski.

Polen will jetzt auch noch den Danziger Versorger Energa verscherbeln.

Nach PGE, Ze Pak, ENEA und Tauron dann der 5.!!! börsennötierte Versorger.

Lustig finde ich, dass man aber erstmal noch ne Dividende haben will

Zitat

Poland plans to pick an industry investor for Energa SA, its fourth-biggest utility, this year after selling a minority stake in an initial public offering by the end of June. The government will give preference to an investor already present on Polands power market, Deputy Treasury Minister Pawel Tamborski said in an interview in Warsaw today. The IPO of as much as 50 percent of Energa may include a new share sale as the Gdansk-based company needs funds for expansion, he said. Poland has sold to the public minority stakes in Energas bigger competitors, including PGE SA (PGE), Tauron Polska Energia SA and Enea (ENA) SA, in past years, while keeping majority holdings in state hands. The offerings helped the government finance its budget deficit and curb borrowing needs. We want to pick advisers for the Energa IPO by the end of January, Tamborski said. Our advisers will help determine the structure of the transaction to reflect the attractiveness of the company, whose focus on the distribution business helps it stand out in the industry. Before the IPO, set to be the biggest in Poland this year, Energa will pay a dividend to the government, Tamborski said. Second Attempt The search for an industry investor will be the ministrys second attempt after the Polish antitrust regulator blocked Energas sale to PGE in 2010 in a deal that valued the company at 8.9 billion zloty ($2.88 billion). Investors interested in the sale then included GDF Suez (GSZ) SA, Kulczyk Holding SA, CEZ AS, Energeticky a Prujmyslovy Holding AS and Polskie Gornictwo Naftowe i Gazownictwo SA. (PGN) The government has already failed twice to sell Enea, its third-largest utility, after holding talks with RWE AG (RWE) in 2009 and Electricite de France SA in 2011. Energa has a 17 percent share in the Polish regulated distribution market, compared with a 3 percent share in the power generation market. Its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, rose 21 percent to 1.07 billion zloty in the first six months of 2012 from a year earlier, according to its website. PGE is valued 4.5 times Ebitda for the last 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Tauron (TPE)s enterprise value, or stock-market capitalization plus debt and minus cash, is 3.6 times Ebitda, while Enea trades 3.1 times Ebitda.

hmm, in solchen Situationen heissr es meistens fressen oder gefressen werden.

"Billisch" schauen a irgendwie alle aus.